Key Takeaways
- Microsoft sets 40 TOPS benchmark for AI PCs, NPUs need to meet this requirement for optimal performance.
- Current consumer hardware falls short of 40 TOPS mark, leaving possible buyers with outdated options.
- AI enthusiasts investing in NPUs may face hardware compatibility issues, potentially impeding performance.
What is an “AI PC” anyway? The term has been thrown around a lot in recent months, but in general, it implies that the PC can run AI-related processes on its local hardware, instead of having to send its queries to an external server. And that’s where the term “AI PC” sat for a couple of months, with Microsoft announcing that it was releasing its first “true AI PCs” with the Surface Pro 10 and the Surface Laptop 6.
As we get closer to Microsoft’s new AI-based Windows, we’re beginning to slowly see what’s expected from computer builders if they hope to make a computer that’s deemed an AI PC in Microsoft’s eyes. For example, if a computer manufacturer wants to be in Microsoft’s graces for the AI revolution, it must include a Copilot key on the keyboard. However, Microsoft also made a hardware-based demand that may leave a few consumers out in the cold.
Microsoft wants AI PCs to have 40 TOPS NPUs
The first benchmark for performance has been set
The biggest Microsoft-given benchmark for an AI PC is its processing power: 40 TOPS for the computer’s NPU. An NPU is a dedicated processor for AI-based applications. It’s sort of like how your CPU is for general processing, and your GPU is dedicated to graphics-based tasks. “TOPS” is what we currently measure NPU power in; it stands for “trillion operations per second,” and the bigger the number is, the more powerful it’s perceived to be. This may change as NPUs become more mainstream, but it’s what we work with right now.
With Microsoft’s declaration, we essentially have the baseline figure that the Redmond giant will expect people to have if they want the full Windows AI experience. When the new AI version of Windows releases, we’ll see PC manufacturers selling computers that adhere to these baselines. If you’ve ever been shopping for a PC around when a new version of Windows comes out, you’ve likely seen the “Windows version compatible” stickers on devices, letting you know they meet the requirements. We’ll likely see something similar with AI PCs that hit the 40 TOPS requirement.
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…but NPUs can’t hit 40 TOPS right now
The hardware you can buy right now is already outdated
So what’s the big problem with hitting 40 TOPS? The biggest issue is that it’s unobtainable with current consumer hardware. For example, if you grab an Intel Meteor Lake Core Ultra processor that came out in December 2023, it can hit 34 TOPS; just shy of the requirements that Microsoft puts on AI PCs. And if Microsoft decides to release the AI version of Windows within 2024, that means that chips that aren’t even a year old will be deemed not a “true” AI PC NPU.
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Microsoft may end up with another hardware problem
We’ve seen something like this before
So, what does this mean? Well, we can likely expect a lot of burned people who bought into the AI hype and expect their hardware to be good for a few more years. It’s unlikely that Microsoft will straight-up decline users who don’t meet the 40 TOPS requirement from using the operating system, but it will likely lock people out of performing AI tasks locally; something that people who are investing in an NPU explicitly want to do.
It reminds me of the big Windows 11 uproar, back when the operating system was close to release. Microsoft allowed people to download a free PC compatibility tool that checked if their computer supported Windows 11. A lot of people with powerful hardware were shocked to learn that the tool deemed their PC unfit for Windows 11. It’s because Windows 11 wasn’t checking for raw processing power; it wanted the processor to have TPM 2.0 compatibility. If it didn’t, no Windows 11 for you.
Microsoft may have believed that the tool would encourage people to upgrade their hardware in preparation for Windows 11. However, the market was a lot more stubborn than that. StatCounter shows that 69% of the PCs it spotted used Windows 10 in March 2024, compared to 26% using Windows 11. Microsoft has tried a lot to encourage people to make the jump, from giving Windows 10 users a free upgrade to producing videos showing how easy it is to upgrade, but it has all fallen on deaf ears.
As such, I’m concerned that the people who are interested in local AI will have likely bought a processor already, and will be sorely disappointed when they learn that their very recent hardware isn’t compatible with all of Windows’ AI features. And if they opt to keep their hardware instead of upgrading again, Microsoft will have a hard time convincing people to upgrade their NPUs, much like how it has a CPU issue with Windows 11 right now.
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Don’t buy into the hype just yet
With AI enthusiasts keen to run their processes locally, Microsoft’s proposed AI-powered Windows will likely be right up their alley. However, with a pretty strict hardware requirement, Microsoft is running the risk of irking people who bought into the NPU hype early. We’ll have to see just how restrictive the new Windows will be against NPUs that don’t hit 40 TOPS, and how the public will react.